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India’s Rare Earth Moment: The Hidden Battle for the Future

Why these 17 metals could decide who controls the next 50 years—and how India must act now.

Imagine this: a future electric car race where India never crosses the finish line. Not because we lack engineers or factories—but because we don’t have enough of something you’ve probably never heard of—rare earth elements (REEs).

These 17 obscure metals—like neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—don’t glitter like gold, but they’re the DNA of modern tech. From iPhones and EVs to missiles, drones, satellites, and wind turbines, rare earths are the irreplaceable core of 21st-century progress.

But there’s a problem. A big one.

The Global Monopoly No One Talks About

China controls over 70% of the world’s rare earth production and more than 85% of refining capacity. That’s not just economic dominance—this is geopolitical leverage. Imagine if OPEC controlled not just oil but also the chips in your smartphone and the motor in your EV.

In fact, China has already weaponized this power:

• In 2010, it restricted rare earth exports to Japan over a maritime dispute.

• In 2023, it imposed export controls on gallium and germanium—critical for semiconductors—sending shockwaves through the global chip industry.

• It has hinted at halting supplies to the U.S. defense sector, a move that could cripple missile and radar systems.

This is why rare earths aren’t just a commodity. They’re a chess piece. And right now, China is the grandmaster.

Where Does India Stand?

Here’s the twist: India has the world’s 6th largest rare earth reserves, estimated at 6.9 million tonnes.

We’re rich in monazite—found in coastal sands of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh—which holds thorium, cerium, lanthanum, and neodymium. Yet, India contributes less than 1% of global rare earth production.

Why?

• IREL (India Rare Earths Limited), a government PSU, has monopoly control.

• Private sector involvement is virtually non-existent.

• Most REEs are found mixed with radioactive elements like thorium—making commercial extraction tricky and policy-sensitive.

• No domestic refining ecosystem: we ship unrefined materials to China and buy back processed rare earths at a premium.

Where Are Rare Earths Used?

Rare earths might be invisible to your eyes, but they’re everywhere around you:

• EVs and Hybrids: Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets are used in electric motors.

• Smartphones: Vibrations, speakers, touchscreens.

• LEDs and Displays: Europium and terbium for vivid colours.

• Wind Turbines: Strong magnets in rotors.

• Defense: Jet engines, guided missiles, radar, night-vision goggles.

• Medical: MRI machines, radiation therapy, portable X-rays.

• Green Tech: Hydrogen fuel cells, solar panels, energy-efficient lighting.

Bottom line: no rare earths = no modern lifestyle.

Is a Resource War Coming?

Yes—and it’s already begun.

The U.S., EU, Japan, and Australia are investing billions to reduce reliance on China:

• U.S. Defense Production Act invoked to boost REE supply chains.

• Australia’s Lynas Corp is building refining hubs outside China.

• Japan invested over $1.2 billion in Vietnam’s rare earth mining.

• The EU launched the Critical Raw Materials Act, aiming to mine 10% and refine 40% of critical minerals domestically by 2030.

Meanwhile, African nations like Tanzania, Malawi, and Madagascar are emerging as new frontiers—but face infrastructure and governance issues.

This is not just trade policy. It’s national security. It’s climate policy. It’s tech supremacy.

What Happens If India Misses the Bus?

• Strategic Dependence: Our ambitious EV targets (30% by 2030) could collapse.

• Manufacturing Delays: Semiconductor fabs and defense contracts could face bottlenecks.

• Price Volatility: China can raise prices or cut supplies at will.

• Lost Export Potential: We could lose out on a $20 billion export opportunity in just a decade.

Could India Become a Rare Earth Superpower?

Yes—and we have the perfect ingredients:

• Massive reserves (6.9 million tonnes)

• Strategic coastline for easy shipping

• Global demand for non-Chinese suppliers

• Domestic talent in metallurgy, mining, and material sciences

What we need:

• Policy liberalisation: Let private sector in, under safety norms.

• Tech partnerships: With Japan, EU, and Korea to build refining capacity.

• Incentives and PLI schemes: Just like solar, EVs, and semiconductors.

• Skill development and R&D: Universities and IITs should lead REE research.

Global Watchlist: Who’s In the Game?

• 🇨🇳 China: Dominates mining, refining, and magnets.

• 🇺🇸 USA: Trying to revive Mountain Pass mine in California.

• 🇦🇺 Australia: Lynas Corp leads non-Chinese production.

• 🇯🇵 Japan: Diversifying supply through Africa and ASEAN.

• 🇻🇳 Vietnam: Rich reserves and now a geopolitical favourite.

• 🇮🇳 India: Untapped potential waiting to be unleashed.

Final Thought

Rare earths may sound like someone else’s problem. But they’re not.

The battle for rare earth dominance will decide who builds the cleanest cars, the smartest weapons, and the fastest chips. It will shape trade wars, national security, and your next mobile phone.

India has the pieces on the board. The time to move is now.

Let’s not look back a decade from now and ask: “What if?”

If we get this right—open up the sector, refine locally, export strategically—rare earths could become the next sunrise industry. It could add ₹2–3 lakh crore to our GDP in the next decade and create thousands of high-tech jobs.

And yes, for market enthusiasts—this could boost listed companies in mining, defense, EVs, electronics, and green energy.

Keep an eye on the Earth beneath our feet. The next big wealth story might be buried in its rarest corners.

Hope you liked it. There are few listed players who may be benefited if Government allows the private players to mine. If you want to engage in deeper discussion, we can catch up over G-meet.

Warm regards,

Tejas

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