Is it better to Time My Monthly SIP Purchases?

Many investors believe that timing the market—finding the perfect day each month to invest—will help them maximize returns.

💭 “Should I invest on the 1st, the 15th, or the last Thursday?”
💭 “Is there a best day to buy SIPs when markets are low?”

If you’ve ever had these thoughts, you’re not alone. But here’s the truth: Timing your SIP doesn’t make a meaningful difference!

We analyzed 28+ years of data and compared three types of investors:

✅ The Luckiest Investor – Always invests on the best day of the month.
✅ The Unluckiest Investor – Always invests on the worst day of the month.
✅ The Disciplined Investor – Always invests on the 15th of every month.

Let’s see how they performed.

Market Timing vs. Consistency: What Does Data Say?

(Data Source: WhiteOak Capital MF, January 2025 - % XIRR for BSE Sensex TRI for SIP between September 1996 to December 2024.)

What This Means for You

1. Even the “Unluckiest” Investor Made Good Returns!
Someone who invested on the worst possible day every month still earned 14.3% annual returns. That’s proof that SIPs smooth out market volatility over time.

2. The Difference Between Luckiest and Unluckiest is Just 0.5%!
Trying to “time” the market every month only resulted in a 0.5% difference in annual returns—a negligible % in long-term investing.

3. Staying Consistent Works Just as Well as Getting Lucky!
The investor who picked the same date every month earned 14.5% returns, which is almost identical to the luckiest investor.

4. The Real Risk is NOT Investing at All!
Many investors wait for the “best” day, and in doing so, they delay investing altogether. Over time, this hesitation costs them far more than a 0.5% timing advantage ever could.

Why Market Timing Fails (Every Time!)

Even professional investors cannot predict market movements consistently.

📉 The market could be up today and down tomorrow.
📈 A stock may look expensive now but become even more expensive later.
🔄 No one can consistently invest at the lowest point every month.

That’s why SIPs are designed to remove emotions and market timing from the equation.

The Investor Who Lost Millions by Trying to Time the Market

I met a friend of mine and his father back in 2016. He owns a good business, has a stable income, and has about 300 employees. His investments in mutual funds were not significant. So we discussed SIP and gradually investing in equities.

He mentioned that he does not want a pre-debit mandate but will give a cheque each month based on how the market looks. He planned to invest Rs. 100,000 per month.

For the first 4 months, he timed it well. Thereafter, he waited for a good entry point - sometimes he was lost in his work, and sometimes market did not enthuse his confidence. So to date, he could just invest roughly Rs. 12-15 lakhs spread because of random investments.

As a result, he missed months of investing. Over 10 years, this delay cost him lakhs in lost growth.

If he would have given an SIP mandate - then his investment over the past 9 years would have been Rs. 1 crore and its value could have been upwards of Rs. 3 crore.

The lesson? Over-analyzing hurts more than it helps. Just invest consistently, and let compounding do the rest.

Final Verdict: Timing vs. Consistency

• Waiting for the “best day” every month? Waste of time.

• Investing on a fixed date every month? Works just as well.

• Delaying investments because of market timing? The biggest mistake of all.

Moral of the story? It’s not about “timing” the market, it’s about “time in” the market.

So don’t stress over dates—just start your SIP and stay consistent!

Happy Investing! 🚀 We love working with founders and working professionals in building their wealth.