Every bull market has a villain.

In 2008, it was US housing. In 2020, it was a virus. In 2022, it was Russia-Ukraine pushing commodity prices through the roof.

In 2026, it is the Iran-Israel conflict — and a barrel of Brent crude sitting above $90.

If you are an Indian investor wondering what this means for your money, your EMIs, and your portfolio — this article is for you. No jargon. No panic. Just a clear look at what happens next, and what history actually tells us to do about it.

First, Understand Why India Feels This More Than Most

India imports 85% of its crude oil.

That single fact explains almost everything that follows.

When oil gets expensive, a chain reaction starts quietly and then gets loud very fast.

Fertilisers cost more — because they are oil-derived. Trucks cost more to run — because they run on diesel. Cold chains, factories, shipping — all of it carries an energy cost. And when those costs rise, they do not stay in one corner of the economy. They spread.

Food inflation moves up. Transport costs rise. Construction materials get pricier. EMIs become harder to service when the RBI responds with rate hikes.

For India's 92% informal workforce — gig workers, daily wage earners, small traders — there is no cushion. They feel it first and recover last.

This is not pessimism. It is just the starting point for thinking clearly.

What Specifically Gets More Expensive

Let us name it plainly.

Food. A $10 rise in oil adds roughly 0.2–0.25% to inflation directly. Add disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, higher fertiliser costs, and transport mark-ups — food inflation of 5%+ becomes very real, very fast. India's subsidy bill could swell by ₹300–500 billion.

Petrol, diesel, LPG. Over 55% of India's crude comes from the Gulf. If Hormuz disruptions persist, import costs rise $4–6 billion annually. Unsubsidised fuel prices could climb 20–30%. LPG — used by 300 million Indian households — is particularly exposed.

Consumer durables. Appliances, two-wheelers, cars. All carry input costs tied to metals, plastics, and energy. Higher EMIs plus higher prices equals one outcome — deferred purchases.

Housing. Construction costs creep up. Interest rates stay elevated. The dream of a first home quietly recedes for another year.

What Did Indians Do the Last Time This Happened?

This is where it gets interesting.

Cast your mind back to 2022. Russia-Ukraine. Oil crossed $100. Inflation spiked globally. Every headline was about how markets would collapse.

And yet.

Businesses that had pricing power — that could pass on costs to customers without losing them — emerged stronger. Businesses that had low debt — that did not need to panic-borrow at high rates — kept compounding quietly. Businesses tied to India's domestic consumption — not dependent on global supply chains — kept growing.

You know the names. You probably own some of them.

Titan. A brand so trusted that even during inflationary cycles, the Indian middle class kept buying gold jewellery and watches. Aspirational demand proved more durable than anyone expected.

Asian Paints. Input costs hit them hard in 2022. They raised prices. Consumers grumbled — and then painted their walls anyway. Volume took a small hit. Margins recovered. The stock went on to create extraordinary wealth over the decade.

Havells and Polycab. India's electrical infrastructure buildout did not pause for oil prices. The long-term trend — housing, electrification, industrial growth — absorbed short-term cost pressures and kept moving.

Hospitals. Healthcare demand is not discretionary. Apollo, Narayana, Max — these businesses kept filling beds through every macro storm. The sector quietly became one of the best wealth creators of the last decade.

The pattern is not complicated.

Businesses with brand loyalty + pricing power + domestic demand + low debt tend to survive inflation. More than survive — they tend to emerge with stronger market positions because weaker competitors exit first.

What Indians Are Already Doing

Indian households are not passive.

Right now, families are stocking LPG cylinders. Businesses are pre-buying raw materials. Gold purchases are accelerating — not out of tradition, but out of a very rational understanding that gold holds value when currencies don't.

These are not financial strategies taught in any textbook. They are instincts developed over generations of navigating uncertainty.

How to Think About Your Portfolio Right Now

Here is not advice. Here is a framework.

Think about what people cannot stop buying.

In 2022, even during peak inflation, FMCG volumes held. Healthcare kept growing. Utilities kept running. The businesses serving these needs were not glamorous. They were just relentless.

Think about what benefits from India building itself.

Capex themes — roads, railways, power, defence — tend to be long-cycle stories. A global war does not stop India from laying transmission lines or building highways. If anything, it accelerates the push for energy self-sufficiency.

Think about what benefits from import substitution.

When global supply chains get disrupted, there is a quiet tailwind for Indian manufacturers who supply domestically. This played out in electronics, chemicals, and industrials after COVID. It could play out again.

And think about what gets left behind.

Businesses with high debt, thin margins, and no pricing power tend to get crushed in inflationary cycles. The correction in smallcaps over the last year has been significant — but not all of that correction represents opportunity. Some of it represents businesses that were never built to last.

The market tends to recover broadly. Wealth is created selectively.

The Uncomfortable But Honest Truth

Corrections feel terrible when you are inside them.

In 2020, markets fell 38% in six weeks. The people who stayed systematic — who kept their SIPs running, who bought quality during the panic — doubled and tripled their wealth over the next three years.

In 2022, smallcaps fell hard. Investors who used that correction to buy into businesses with genuine earnings growth rather than narrative-driven valuations did very well through 2023 and 2024.

Right now, smallcaps are sitting nearly 60% below their peaks in some pockets.

History does not guarantee a repeat. But it does offer a strong suggestion about what tends to happen when quality businesses are available at reasonable prices.

The investors who build wealth across decades are not the ones who predicted the war. They are the ones who stayed calm while everyone else was reacting to it.

One Last Thought

Wars end. Supply chains adjust. Inflation peaks and then fades.

What does not fade is the compounding power of owning the right businesses through the noise.

Titan was not a multibagger because someone predicted every macro cycle correctly. It was a multibagger because someone held it patiently through every cycle that came.

That is still the strategy.

Build quality. Stay systematic. Ignore the noise long enough to hear the signal.

Markets do not reward the most informed investor. They reward the most patient one.

PS: Here is list of stocks that I track in this war time:

Stock is best bought when there is a discount and currently entire market is on Discount. For those, who find tracking stocks difficult, buying mutual fund is much more peaceful. Let me know what are you tracking?

Warm regards,

Tejas